Welcome everyone to the PTB VS Series. The VS Series will be a team by team breakdown of how the Blazers match up against the rest of the league. We’ll be posting a new entry in the series every day until the season opener against LA. 29 days. 29 teams. Let’s get started.
Last season’s result: 4 - 0
Games this season: 4
Team Breakdown
The Minnesota Timberwolves were pretty terrible last season. They finished with a record of 22 - 60. I vision that they will win at least 25 games this year, which places them higher then many teams in the standings. However, the Timberwolves are still near the very bottom of our power rankings. The truth is that this team could be decent and win 30 games but they could also struggle and win 22 games again.
The biggest offseason move for the Timberwolves was getting OJ Mayo and then quickly trading him for Kevin Love. This will be one of those trades (much like the Roy & Foye trade) that people will look at for years to see who got the better end of the deal. It is clear that the Blazers outsmarted the Timberwolves in the Roy deal, but the Love & Mayo deal might be harder to call. Mayo will score more points, but Love is seen as a team player, a guy who can distribute the ball from the inside out.
So how bad will the Timberwolves be this season? Not THAT bad. Okay, they won’t be good, but they will be a tough matchup for some teams. Al Jefferson is good, Kevin Love could be good and Mike Miller can score. Lucky for the Blazers, we matchup VERY well against the Timberwolves.
Position by Position
Point Guard: Blake vs. Foye
The Telfair experiment is done in Minnesota, and Foye should be healthy this season. He is still young and has limited time in the NBA since he missed half of last season. It will take him time to readjust to the NBA speed of the game. Steve Blake is a veteran leader for the Blazers and can more then hold his own with Foye. I think it is getting clearer and clearer how big of a mistake the Timberwolves made when they decided they wanted Foye over Roy…
Advantage: Steve Blake. Foye might have more raw talent, but Steve Blake is somewhere near his prime cooking stage.
Shooting Guard: Roy vs. Miller
Mike Miller comes to the Timberwolves as part of the OJ Mayo trade, and he is a really good pickup in the deal. The Timberwolves traded one starter for two, and got a proven scorer in Miller. My issue with Miller is what I call the ZBo effect, bad teams make decent players look good and good players look great. I would put Miller in that “decent to good” area. The good news for the Blazers is that Roy is the real deal. Miller can shoot, but Roy can defend. I think Miller will be one of the big assets for the Timberwolves from the outside, but Roy will wear him down all game long.
Advantage: Roy.
Small Forward: Webster vs. Carney
It surprises me with all the amazing players out there that Rodney Carney would be a starter on any NBA team. His career numbers are mediocre for a rotational player, let alone a starter. To me, Carney is the weakest link in a pretty weak link. Corey Brewer will compete with Carney for the starting job, and I assume take the job once the Timberwolves start tanking. I don’t think either are very good, but Brewer has some upside. This is a matchup where Martell Webster can shine. He is clearly better then anything that will be thrown at him
Advantage: Webster.
Power Forward: Aldridge vs. Love
I am in the camp that thinks Love will be a decent NBA player. He will have a long career by NBA standards and no one will call him a bust or a star. With that said, Aldridge is a star in the making. I think Love is the type of player who can help a franchise rebuild and help a team win games, but he will not be the leader that some might hope. Aldridge is so much faster then Love that it’s not even funny.
Advantage: Aldridge. Aldridge. Aldridge.
Center: Oden vs. Jefferson
Al Jefferson is a beast, especially against the Blazers. Last season he was a monster on the boards, averaging over 11 a game. In his games against Portland last season, he was the only member of the Timberwolves who I would have wanted on my team. He owned Przybilla, and that is not an easy task. Remember that Przybilla is probably in the top 15 NBA centers, or at least top 20. This year though, Jefferson will take on Oden. I am guessing Oden’s size alone means Jefferson will be slowed in his production to some degree.
Advantage: Jefferson. Oden is a big guy, but Jefferson has the edge on experience and until Oden proves himself, I can’t put him above one of the NBA’s top centers. (And yes, Jefferson is a top center).
Key Bench
Blazers: Bayless, Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye, Pryzbilla
Timberwolves: Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants, Calvin Booth, Corey Brewer
This is a fun matchup because the Timberwolves might have the worst bench in the NBA and the Blazers might have the best bench. That’s all that needs to be said.
Advantage: Blazers.
Series Outcome
I just don’t see how that Timberwolves can beat the Blazers unless Jefferson goes for something like 40 points and 22 rebounds. I guess that’s possible, but I don’t see it happening. Just like last year, the Blazers sweep the Timberwolves.
Good read, but what about guys like Ryan Gomes, Jason Collins and Craig Smith? I am positive Carney will not be starting for the Wolves. Plus Bayless and Rodriguez, while I think both will be fine, have proven nothing in the NBA.
Here’s how I’d see the comparisons break down:
Blake/Foye
Roy/Miller
Webster/Gomes
Aldridge/Love
Oden/Jefferson
Benches:
Outlaw, Pryzbilla, Rodriguez, Frye, Bayless
McCants, Telfair, Brewer, Smith, Collins
And yes, Portland will almost surely be better than the Wolves this year,
woops, hit submit to early.
Was going to finish with:
And yes, Portland will almost surely be better than the Wolves this year, but I think the gap is closer than you describe it.
I agree it’s a pretty good read. Though I don’t think player by player comparisons are really that effective at predicting the outcome of a game. It’s a team game after all. McHale (yea, I know, HIM) has built this team a lot around versatility, so the biggest strenght is the fact we can switch styles according to our opponent.
Anyway, as wyn already said, the matchups aren’t accurate. McCants won’t be the starter at the SG but he will probably have the most minutes there, maybe shared with Brewer and Carney.
So I’d match them up like this:
Blake/Foye -> Blake
Roy/Brewer -> Roy (Brewer will get most minutes against portland to play defense on Roy)
Webster/Miller -> Miller (I like Miller :p)
Aldridge/Love -> Aldridge (because Love is a rookie, otherwise it’s pretty close)
Oden/Jefferson -> Jefferson (because Oden is a rookie, otherwise it’s pretty close)
Also you guys indeed have pretty good bench.
So off course the Blazers are better, that’s obvious, you’re also 2-3 years ahead in the rebuilding progress. Looking forward to 2011-2012 where both our teams might very well be atop of the West
Good read. Minnesota is a lot more promising than I originally thought….