Travis Outlaw: This Season
Okay, this is my attempt to break down Travis Outlaw and what he means to the Blazers. What is his value, his role and his future. I’m doing a two part series starting with “This Season.” Part two will examine “The Future.”
This pre-season has been a roller coaster for one player in particular: Travis Outlaw. He was coming into the season saying he wants to be a starter (one day) but he is satisfied with coming off the bench this year. Coach Nate said nothing was official, but Webster was the likely starter. Well, then Webster got hurt, making Outlaw the only true option to start at the small forward position. If you are Outlaw, you were waiting for this chance. I’m not saying that he wanted Webster to get hurt, because I am sure he didn’t, but I think all NBA players recognize that you may only get a few shots to really make your imprint on the league, and this was one of those chances.
In the first pre-season game (the one that Webster was hurt in) Outlaw came off the bench and looked like the same Travis Outlaw we came to love last year. He shoots a ton (3 for 8), but does his part, scoring 9 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists in 19 minutes. These are solid numbers for a 6th man on a team that has as many scoring options as the Blazers have. Then, in Outlaw’s world, all hell broke loose.
In game two, he was put in the starting lineup since Webster was out and Outlaw throw away the opportunity. He has 8 points, 4 rebounds and 0 assists in 29 minutes. Worst of all, he shot 1 for 12. Yes, he took 12 shots. That’s the same as Aldridge and one more then Oden. No offense to Outlaw, but he should not ever be taking that many shots, especially on a night when he is obviously not hitting. But, Roy wasn’t in the game, so Outlaw felt it appropriate to take a few shots for Roy’s sake. So, call it an off night.
In game three, Outlaw backed up his 1 for 12 night with a 2 for 9 night, a dramatic lack of improvement. He scored 6 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists in 30 minutes. So, call it two off nights. Hey, everyone struggles adjusting to playing after the off-season.
In game four, Outlaw played better, scoring 14 points in just 21 minutes, but more importantly, shooting 6 for 9. He did only have 1 rebound and 0 assists in the game though.
So, what is Outlaw’s value. He has proven in the past, and in this pre-season that he is not the starter that will take Portland to the Western Finals in the small forward position. I think nearly every fan would agree that he shoots a ton and doesn’t take good shots. His defense is good, but not stellar. He has long arms and can jump out of the arena, but for some reason fails to hold his own against the NBA’s starting small forwards. He is a guy who needs the ball in his hands to preform. That is very different then Webster, who hardly handles the ball and is very much a spot up shooter.
Lets take a look at this season. They are saying Webster is out up to 8 weeks, so let’s just say that Webster would not be available at full speed to be inserted back in the starting lineup until Jan 1, 2009. That leaves the Blazers with a few options:
1) Start Outlaw at the small forward position
2) Play a modified 3 guard lineup: Blake, Fernandez and Roy
3) Entertain the idea of playing Frye (if healthy by opening night) out of position
Option 1:
This appears to be the most likely option. You hope that Outlaw accepts his new role as a starter, but the 4th or 5th option. Every time down the court, the ball should be in both Roy and Oden’s hands. Then if those two don’t shoot, look for Aldridge to be wide open or dish out to Blake or Outlaw. The problem is that Outlaw is a terrible spot up shooter. He is a run and gun type of guy, he can hit running jumpers that leave you in awe, but will miss open spot up attempts from the same distance. Yes, on some nights Outlaw will go 1 for 12, but Oden and Aldridge should be monsters on the boards, so maybe that’s not the worse thing in the world. On defense, Outlaw will be as fast as his opponents and matches up well size wise.
Option 2:
If you are going to put Blake, Fernandez and Roy on the court together, you are trusting a lot in the play of Oden and Aldridge down low. They will have to really clog the key on defense because playing three guards will give many teams a miss-match at small forward that they would look to exploit. In this circumstance, Roy would most likely be assigned to guard the opposing small forward, although Fernandez has shown in preseason to be a scrappy defender. The other option is a zone. Put Oden and Aldridge down on the blocks with Roy and Fernandez on the flanks and Blake up top. This would leave us very vulnerable to drives down the center, but if Oden gets his legs, it might work.
Option 3:
This is the option that really excites me, but I know has almost no chance of happening. Frye can play the small forward through center position, but is a natural power forward. He would be able to actually throw his weight around for the first time ever against a small forward, but he would get burned on defense over and over. Unless, we run a zone. Put Oden in the middle of the key with his arms up, running out of the key every so often as to not get called for defensive three seconds, then Aldridge and Frye just outside the blocks with Roy and Blake up top. This leaves the corners wide open, because Aldridge and Frye would be playing in much tighter, but this can work against poor shooting teams, or teams that love to play inside. The down fall here is that Frye has almost no ability to penetrate on offense, although is a respectable shooter. He too is coming off injury though, so that puts another question mark in this option. Do I see it happening? Not more then once or twice.
Once Webster returns, the fight for the starting job at small forward will be up in the air. If Outlaw has been playing well, Webster might have to come off the bench for longer then expected. If Outlaw his been continuing his poor shooting and shot selection, Webster will get his job back almost immediately. If the Blazers take options 2 or 3, Webster will get his job back almost immediately too, unless these options have worked out tremendously well, which I doubt.
If Outlaw has been playing anything less then stellar, his name will come up in many trade rumors. The Blazers have a huge chip in the LaFrentz contract and will be looking for a proven small forward. More on this in Part 2 of the series.
So what do I see happening? The Blazers give Outlaw the chance he deserves, and put him in the starting lineup on opening night. Expect Fernandez to enter the game in the first quarter though, being the first or second man off the bench (depending on Oden’s fouls). Outlaw will hopefully preform well, but I see a roller coaster happening. Some nights he shoots 6 for 9 and has 14 to 20 points and other nights he shoots 1 for 9 and has 3 to 5 points. When Webster returns, he will be given his shot to re-earn the starting job, and will do just that. Outlaw will return to the bench, although not happily (privately) and will return to his reliable 12 points per game self. In the summer, he will be traded or ask to be traded because he feels under utilized. (*Thus of course unless he is traded during the season).
