There has been a very heated debate over if/should the Blazers sign Shaun Livingston ever since he worked out for the team. The Blazers are very deep at point with Blake, Bayless (although I contend he is a 2, as was his position in college) and Sergio Rodriguez.
So let me take a moment to break down the potential Livingston signing.
Background:
- Livingston went straight from high school to the NBA, he is only 24 years old
- He is tall, 6′7″, for a point guard
- He was the 4th pick in the 2004 draft
- His career averages are 7.4 pts, 4.8 asts and 3.1 rebounds per game
- He has played in 12 playoff games (avg 7.5 pts)
- On 02/26/07 he went for a layup, missed, and landed terribly on his knee. He dislocated his left kneecap and his leg literally snapped back. He tore his ACL, PCL, and meniscus. He also sprained his MCL and dislocated his tibia-femoral joint and patella
- Of 246 regular season games while in the NBA, Livingston has been injured for 101 of those games
- On 06/16/08 (over 14 months after the injury), Livingston was cleared to play basketball
The 15th Spot:
The heart of the Livingston debate really goes to the remaining 15th spot debate. Signing Livingston eliminates the possibility to sign Luke Jackson or Steven Hill (more likely Steven Hill then Luke Jackson). The only other possibility is that Livingston is signed, and an existing Blazer is traded for cash (or a 2 for 1 deal) to open up the spot for Hill. The only player who would be at all in a position to be traded in exchange for essentially nothing is Sergio Rodriguez. So, the heart of the debate is really: Do you take Livingston over Rodriguez? Hill over Livingston? Rodriguez over Hill? Basically, two of these players will be Blazers, one will not.
Risk v Reward:
I have been reading a lot of NBA blogs and forums, and one thing that I hear from fans who want Livingston is the risk v reward argument. Now, the risk here is not that he will flop and sit on the bench. The risk is that he will flop and sit on the bench AND Rodriguez or Hill (whoever is not a Blazer in the end) flourishes elsewhere in the NBA. So, I agree that this is risk v reward, but I think most people are not viewing the risk properly. What if we sign Livingston, trade Sergio and Blake goes down opening night with a season ending injury? Then we are left with Livingston (after a 14 month knee injury and a non-productive NBA career) or Bayless (a true 2 guard and rookie) running the point. I actually would feel more comfortable with Rodriguez running the point. I think Bayless would still start over Rodriguez, but I think Rodriguez would be very productive off the bench, especially playing with Rudy Fernandez. So what if we sign Livingston, keep Rodriguez and let Hill sign elsewhere? Well, Ike Diogu is a huge unknown with his injury past, Frye is out with an injury and LaFrentz is injured. That would mean another season of Outlaw playing a lot of time at the 4, which might not be so bad, but it might upset him enough to demand his way out of Portland. Hill could provide heart, dedication and someone for Oden to throw around in practice. I think the practice dummy factor is actually important.
The “Star” Factor:
I have also heard many fans say that Livingston was a #4 pick, a great talent, has huge potential and was a great player. It’s simply not true. Yes, he was the #4 pick, but he never adjusted to the NBA game and never was able to really make a name for himself in the NBA. We let Darius Miles, a former #3 pick (both were drafted by the LA Clippers), walk after his injury. How is Livingston any different? If anything, Miles proved he can play in the NBA (and act in Hollywood, see “The Perfect Score,” so Miles was a real star) before his injuries. Now, I do think Miles was a plague in the locker room and I would be happy enough to have his contract stay on our books just as long as he is out of the locker room.
Livingston, by all accounts, has a positive attitude towards his return to the NBA and wants to put in the work to make it happen. I just disagree with the fact that Livingston was, or ever will be, a star. At best, he is a bust who turns into a solid rotational player through a lot of hard work. He will never be averaging 20+ points a game, and he is not our long term solution at point. Is he a better third string point guard then Rodriguez? If healthy, yes, but his whole career he has been out for about 40% of games due to injury. Livingston might be able to have a positive impact on the team, but I don’t see him as a star, or having ever been a star.
So Will KP Sign Livingston:
I guess only KP knows, although the consensus is that Livingston will sign with the Blazers. I would welcome this signing, but I would be confused if Rodriguez is still on the team come opening night. Even with Rodriguez gone, I just don’t see any minutes for Livingston. Blake will be starting and playing in the 3rd quarter, Bayless running the point in the 2nd and Roy in the 4th. All the garbage minutes are already accounted for by Bayless. Now, if Livingston is coming in and getting himself back to as near 100% as possible, he could be a valuable asset in the future to fill in due to injury or in a trade. I think a lot of NBA teams would be willing to pay for Rodriguez, so if we do sign Livingston, expect Rodriguez gone within the week. If he is not gone, expect his comments about playing elsewhere turn into a demand to play elsewhere.
The Bottom Line:
Signing Livingston is really not that big of a deal. Sure, it is in September, but come opening night, he will be occupying Darius Miles’ spot behind the bench, joking with LaFrentz about Batum’s funny accent. In the future, Livingston could help the Blazers, but he will have no real immediate impact. And, if he is the type of player who KP believes is healthy and good enough to make a big impact, then this debate is a no-brainer. The biggest effect of a Livingston signing will likely be a Rodriguez departure.
Put in your two cents, place a comment below!