Portland Trail Bloggers

A three game skid. Bad. Losing to the Clippers. Bad. Losing Outlaw to injury. Indifferent. Roy emerging as the only scoring option. Terrible. Oden going 14 and 12. Good. 

I am in awe. Things were going so well, then, this happens. A loss to Utah is fine. A loss to Orlando, especially at the last minute, no problem. But losing to the Clippers at home is terrible. I won’t blame the game on Blake, but he did choke. Roy is on the boarder between forcing his own shot and realizing he is the only option, Im not sure which is currently true. I’m not going to go into a ton of detail, just to say things are bad right now. What I do think is that it will turn around. Oden is doing better (not great or even good, but better), Aldridge is playing poor but Roy is doing great.

I think more then ever, fans will be calling for trades, which might be the best move, but remember, we have Bayless sitting on the edge of the bench, which might be the biggest acquisition of all, that is, if he can acquire some minutes.

Anyone who watched the game last night against Utah will be left with one feeling: frustration. Brandon Roy was the only bright spot, with a stellar 31 points and 8 rebounds. Otherwise, Oden looked bad, Blake was outplayed and Outlaw continued to prove that he will not be on this team at the end of the season. More then anything, the Blazers were far out coached. Call it a young team, but the Blazers settle for the 3 so much that it can be disgusting to watch. Okay, that’s harsh, but true when you have Aldridge down low (and Boozer is out). In the fourth quarter, we began to use Aldridge again, and on 3 possessions went in down low to him. Oh what do you know, a 6 point run. Then, kick out to Blake for a three, missed. Next possession, Rudy for 3… and missed. Then the next possession, another missed 3. I don’t understand. I know, we are currently (or were) the 2nd best 3 point shooting team, but is that more by fluke then anything else? We were not supposed to be a good three point shooting team, and this is a huge surprise by any standard. I mean Outlaw, Fernandez and Blake have been lighting it up from behind the arc. The only one in that group that should be shooting like that is Blake (and to a lesser extent Fernandez).

There were so many times during the game where I was just left thinking what are we doing. You know when you were little and went up against an older kid in a game of one-on-one? Well, that was last night. So what do you do when you are against those older kids? You shoot outside shots. You know you can’t drive in, because every shot will be rejected. You stand no chance other then throwing up deep shots, shots that are so far out they wont defend. Here is my problem: The Blazers are better inside then the Jazz (sans Boozer). The tables should have been turned, with Oden, Aldridge and Przybilla holding down the key, putting a body on everyone coming down the key. Force them to play behind the arc.

This game just goes back to the Orlando game too, showing that we are boys playing a mans game. Sure, we can jump out of the gym, but sometimes we forget to tie our shoes and trip before we jump. Blowing an 8 point lead in a minute? Coaching. I am not saying Coach Nate isn’t a great coach, because I do think he is a good fit for this team, but I think he is growing, just like the players. In the world of NBA coaching, Nate is a pretty new kid on the block. He didn’t coach in college and his main credential is that he was a solid court leader in his playing days. I see the value in having a coach that has played, but I also see the value in having a coach who can coach. That is coming with Nate, but the last two games show just how much growth our coaching staff needs as the players.

We cant just shoot our way to the playoffs. And even if we do, we won’t get far in the playoffs just shooting. We HAVE to defend the fast break, we are terrible in transition defense (a la Suns and Jazz games). So, it’s frustration. We were spoiled with the early start, despite Oden being a disappointment, Webster being out (again) and Aldridge having a tough start (not bad, but not growth over last season).

Season Breakdown

The Blazers are off to a great start to the season. The team is currently 2nd in the Western Conference and in sole possession of first place in the Northwest Division. Oh how good it feels! The season is 20-games old (or young), which is about 25% (24.39%) of the season. So, here is a little statistical breakdown:

A Look at Percentages:

Percent of Season Completed: 24.39%

Percent to 50 Wins: 28%

Percent to 45 Wins: 31.11%

Percent to 41 Wins: 35%

On Pace for: 56 Wins

Percent of Home Games Played: 17.07%

Percent of Road Games Played: 31.71%

A Look at Last Year: 8 - 12

The main statistics that show up to me is that the Blazers have played almost 32% of their road games, while only being 25% through the season. On the flip side, the Blazers have only played 17% of their home games (and are currently undefeated at home).

Also of note, the Blazers are on pace for 56 wins, but even more showing is that the team is a whole 10% ahead of schedule to match last seasons record of 41 wins (already 35% completed).

The Good:

Point Differential Rank: 4th in the NBA (+5.5)

Three Point Percentage Rank: 2nd in the NBA (37%)

Turnover Rank: 4th in the NBA (13.1 per game)

The Bad:

Opponents Field Goal Percentage Rank: 20th in the NBA (45.87%)

Opponents Three Point Percentage Rank: 22nd in the NBA (41%)

Opponents Turnover Rank: 23rd in the NBA (13.8)

In essence, the team is doing well across many categories, be it turnovers, shooting or overall point differential. The more showing area might be the area of weakness, which would be defense. The Blazers rank 20th and 22nd in the NBA for defending the field goal and three point field goal, respectively. Those rankings, in the 20’s, is not great. If the Blazers want to continue their successes over the remainder of the season, they will need to improve on defense. Pull those defensive shooting ranks into the 15 or lower range, and the Blazers will be doing great for the remainder of the season (and playoffs). Also, the Blazers only force 13.8 turnovers a game (which is more then they turn the ball over at 13.1) but force an extra turnover per game, convert an extra point off that turnover and your point differential could improve to +6.5. That’s a liberal calculation, but you get the idea.

Player Breakdown

LaMarcus Aldridge:

Does Aldridge stand for All Star? It might. Aldridge is having another impressive year, averaging nearly 16 points and 7 rebounds per game. Okay, those numbers probably won’t get him a spot on the All Star team (unless the NBA wants two representatives from Portland), but he is vital to the Blazers winning season. Aldridge has improved his offensive abilities, specifically a better back-to-the-basket game. He played his best game against Detroit (and Rasheed Wallace), scoring 27 points in a road win.

Nicolas Batum:

The impact that Batum has far outshines his mere 6 points and 3 rebounds per game. He plays limited minutes (16.8) but has provided a big spark of energy and hustle on multiple occasions. He goes for every loose ball, goes after any nearby rebound and has kept vital possessions alive when they count in the 2nd half. He will likely see a dramatic reduction in minutes once Webster returns, but he has had a huge impact in filling the void and more. I guess that is the beauty of Batum, he didn’t only fill a void for an injured player, he carved out a place of his own.

Jerryd Bayless:

After only playing in 7 games this season, Bayless has not been given a true chance to run. For that reason, it is not really fair to evaluate his play of impact. What I can say, is that he shows up for practice everyday and is pushing Blake and Rodriguez to be better. If their is an injury at the point guard position, expect Bayless to stand up.

Steve Blake:

One of the biggest weaknesses going into the season was supposed to be the lack of ability at the point guard position. Well, Blake doesn’t agree. Blake is averaging 11.5 points and 4.2 assists per game in only 29.5 minutes. He has played great in the last six games (6-0), and calmed many fears over his ability to run the team. It would be nice to see more assists out of a starting point guard, but his outside shooting and experience (5th year in the league), will be very key come the push for the playoffs.

Ike Diogu:

It’s really not fair to evaluate a player who only plays garbage minutes, but Ike is a good guy, a good teammate and fills his role.

Rudy Fernandez:

Rudy is either the biggest surprise of the season or the best “I told you so.” He has been stellar, at times, and pedestrian, at times, but overall Fernandez provides the shooting and energy that makes the Blazers so deadly. He averages only 11.6 points per game, hardly a number that will earn him the Rookie of the Year award, but he is the best rookie on the best team, if that counts for anything. Sure, Rose gets great numbers, but he also plays the minutes of a starter, not the 26 minutes that Fernandez is playing. His shooting (43.8% 3PP and 95.3% FT) is really key to the Blazers current record.

Channing Frye:

Someone learned to shoot the three and his name is Channing. Coming in to the season, Frye was only a 28% career 3PT, he is 38.5% on the season. That is a huge improvement, and his threes have been moments of great inspiration and energy. You know you love when a big man steps out for the long ball. It’s hard to imagine that at age 25, Frye is one of the oldest players on the team, but he is, and he carries himself like a man. He does depend way to much on the jumper and is weak in the post, but he is slowly converting into a 3/4 and not the 4/5 that he was forced to play his first few years in the league.

Greg Oden:

Obviously, Oden came into the season with great hype, and fell, fast (literally in the season opener). He remains the 2nd best center on the team, but first in our hearts. Maybe, I do hold a special place for Joel too. He has become a double double machine over the past few games, well sort of at least. Oden has a much bigger impact on defense, as opposed to offense, but his offensive game is developing. He shots 65% from the free throw line, which is lower then was probably expected, but is still respectable for a big man. The hard thing to remember is that Greg is 20 years old and had only played in 14 NBA games. His upside is still there, just give it time and patience.

Travis Outlaw:

Oh Travis Outlaw. He is often a spark plug, but often a black hole. He shots 50% from the three point range, but only a 42% field goal percentage. HUH? Yah, exactly. The beef with Travis is that he has NO FUNDAMENTALS, which is essentially true. He is a Ruben Patterson type hustle player. He thrives off loose play where he can run, create and beat someone with the ball. He does not do well in catch and shoot situations (except from long range) and can’t be trusted with the ball in the final minute anymore. Once Webster returns, Outlaw might see a reduction in his minutes (as well as Batum), but if he continues to shoot the long ball well, averaging about 1.5 made three pointers per game, he will continue to get long runs on the floor.

Joel Przybilla:

If I were to name an MVP so far for the Blazers (Roy excluded) it would be Joel Przybilla. He came into the season knowing he lost his starting job, for no fault of his own, and that he would be seeing a lot more of the bench. Then, Oden goes down against the Lakers and in comes the importance of Joel Przybilla. With Oden back in the starting lineup, Joel is coming off the bench and STILL having a big impact. He is a monster on the boards and blocks shoots like it’s his job (I guess it is though).

Shavlik Randolph:

N/A

Sergio Rodriguez:

Trade me. Don’t trade me. Play me. Let me earn it. Who knows what has really been said or what is all fabrication. What is true is that those lobs Rodriguez throws to Fernandez are awesome. He is playing really well and is a much more disciplined player then last year, but still has significant downside. He will likely never be a starting point guard for the Blazers and his shooting is weak, just 35%. For now, Rodriguez has beat out Bayless, but down the road, who can say. Keeping Rodriguez on the floor has the opportunity cost of not playing Bayless, that will make it double hard for Rodriguez to keep his job, but for now, his performance has been deserving of his playing time.

Brandon Roy:

Brandon was the Rookie of the Year, and if the SOY and JOY awards (Sophomore of the Year and Junior of the Year) existed, he would win those too. Brandon is an All Star now and Finals MVP in the making. He is so composed and clutch, a leader but not forceful. Not much needs to be said here, Roy takes care of that on the court.

Martell Webster:

Hopefully Webster will return to the lineup very soon. He is out of his boot and running in practice, but still a little behind schedule in returning to game speed. His return will, eventually, push Batum from the starting lineup and possibly reduce Outlaw’s minutes. He is a career 39% 3PT, which is good and since the three ball has been so key to the Blazers, it will be nice to have Webster back in the lineup.